Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have indicated that interest rate hikes may be necessary sooner rather than later, as headline inflation is projected to rise from its current benign levels in the coming months, according to the minutes of the August review.
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has indicated that rate cuts are improbable in the near term, with headline inflation projected to reach 6 per cent in the third quarter. Minutes from the October meeting reveal growing concerns among members about inflation spreading beyond food and fuel, leading to a shift in policy stance towards calibrated tightening.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
For the first time, the value of card and mobile payments of Rs 10.57 trillion was more than ATM withdrawals of Rs 9.12 trillion in Q4 of fiscal 2019-20. In the months of lockdown, the gap may have widened further, but cash could be back in vogue when the situation normalises.
